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作者:杜帝开密 来源:原创 发布日期:10-17

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????本周国际原油价格大幅波动。在12月24日的圣诞前夜,美国石油价格下跌6%,至每桶42.36美元,这是自2017年8月17日以来的新低。宏观经济形势及其对石油需求的影响继续给油价带来压力,美国政府的关闭加剧了对资产市场的压力。但假期过后,投资者似乎平静下来,美国股市反弹,俄罗斯表示愿意在必要时会面,以帮助稳定石油市场并实现原油价格的V型反转。上周五(12月28日),API原油库存大幅上涨,但多头保留了部分胜利果实。根据Beckhughes能源服务公司周六(12月29日)的一份报告,12月28日这一周,钻井平台数量增加了2个,达到885个,这表明美国原油产量有望进一步增加。此外,API原油库存下降幅度低于预期,这可能使下周初的油价略低。欧佩克及其盟国,包括俄罗斯,本月早些时候同意每天减产120万桶。协议将于明年1月开始。欧佩克秘书长巴尔金此前曾表示,为了证明其减少供应的承诺,欧佩克将发布一份表格,详细说明其成员国、俄罗斯和其他盟国的减产配额。为实现日产120万桶的拟议减产,成员国的有效减产率为3.02%。近年来,从供给侧结构看,石油市场的主导地位已由石油输出国组织(欧佩克)转向美国、沙特阿拉伯和俄罗斯三方博弈。2019年,美国原油产量基本实现能源独立,随着内陆管道瓶颈的缓解,将稳步增长,势必加大供应过剩压力。页岩产量的增长使美国成为世界上最大的石油生产国。上周的数据显示,美国的石油产量仍保持在每天1160万桶,略低于每天1170万桶的历史高点。另一方面,沙特阿拉伯和俄罗斯主导的协议旨在平衡市场,但考虑到俄罗斯和部分免税产油国的实力不足,无法实施减产,实际提高油价的幅度有限。数据显示,在执行新的欧佩克切断协议之前,主要产油国已开始满负荷生产,俄罗斯原油产量在12月前两周升至每日1142万桶,达到新的高点。伊戈尔,俄罗斯最大的原油生产商俄罗斯石油公司的首席执行官?赛钦说,油价应该已经稳定下来,因为每个人都应该合理地害怕欧佩克协议,但事实上没有人害怕。克里姆林宫发言人佩斯科夫(Dmitry Peskov)在本周发表的一份声明中说,现在评估欧佩克协议的有效性还为时过早,该协议将随着时间的推移对价格产生影响。全球股市大幅下跌,需求信心的崩溃是最大的短期因素。JohnKilduff,LLC的合伙人,认为随着股票市场的下跌,各种金融市场都存在紧张局势,导致油价承压。需求前景继续受到质疑。他说,美国利率的上升迫使投机者抛售头寸,推低油价。能源投资银行Tudor Pickering Holt Co.的分析师表示,过去几天原油市场面临的销售压力不是由基本面因素造成的,而是由整体市场的崩溃造成的,这是由于股市波动加剧和对全球宏观经济前景的担忧所致。汇通注意到,与2014年的趋势偏差不同,近几周来,油价和美国股市的波动性越来越趋同,相关性高达75%,这也表明油价越来越受到经济担忧的影响。这也解释了为什么欧佩克决定在不久的将来削减产量,许多成员国誓言遵守削减协议,但油价似乎只跟随美国股市的大幅下跌。美国原油周四上涨超过9%,美国股市当天强劲反弹,三大主要股指创下近十年来最大单日涨幅,再次得到证实。”芝加哥价格期货集团(Chicago Price Futures Group)经纪公司高级能源分析师弗林(Flynn)表示:“油价基本上与实际供需基本面脱节,但与股市涨跌有关。”Drillinginfo负责市场情报的副总裁Bernadette Johnson表示,市场仍然非常担心需求。最后一轮抛售并没有反映出市场对需求的信心,但市场仍然下跌得太快,利润率太高,我们仍然认为45美元太低。阿联酋能源部长马祖瑞(Mazrui)表示,未来石油反弹的三个基本面是3月23日延长减产或过度减产或油价回升,如果减产不起作用,欧佩克将延长减产协议的期限6个月。据了解,此前的欧佩克计划于2019年1月开始实施减产,初步设定的期限为4个月。据外媒报道,俄罗斯能源部长诺瓦克表示,明年上半年市场将更加稳定,并建议欧佩克及其盟国合作支持石油市场。沙特阿拉伯计划在2019年1月每天生产1020万桶原油,低于根据欧佩克协议分配给它的1030万桶原油。石油输出国组织(opec)沙特主管阿玛(ama)表示:“对沙特阿拉伯来说,过度减产并不陌生。”他还说,沙特阿拉伯在之前的减产中已经超过了其目标,而且减产超过了其份额。2017年1月至2018年5月,降幅达到120%。此外,投资者需要关注的是,伊朗的石油出口是否会在明年下半年进一步下降,届时伊朗几个主要客户免遭石油制裁的最后期限将到期。巴克莱投资银行(Barclays Investment Bank)预测,如果油价继续低于60美元,特朗普政府将有更多的余地免除石油需求国受到制裁,这意味着未来石油供应仍存在政治风险。在油价突破80美元的门槛之前,美国不会继续向伊朗施压,以削弱其出口能力。事实上,随着美国对伊朗制裁力度的加大,伊朗的原油产量大幅下降,11月的原油日产量首次降至300万桶以下。随着伊朗的孤立加剧,或者伊朗原油出口量降至市场此前估计的每天100万桶,这可能是对油价的有效支撑。价格下跌自然会削弱增产的意愿。油价下跌将导致美国页岩油生产商削减明年的钻井计划。由于美国石油跌破50美元的门槛,生产商可能很难长期维持国际收支平衡,美国石油产量可能呈现下降趋势。根据汇通的分析,如果油价过低,欧佩克一些成员国的动荡可能会加剧。2014年至2016年期间,价格暴跌,导致或至少加剧了利比亚、委内瑞拉和尼日利亚的电力供应中断。同样的事情可能会再次发生。几乎所有欧佩克成员国都需要更高的油价来实现国际收支平衡。如果2019年原油供应意外中断可能会收紧市场,未来油价仍有回落的机会。责任编辑:张宁

ben zhou guo ji yuan you jia ge da fu bo dong. zai 12 yue 24 ri de sheng dan qian ye, mei guo shi you jia ge xia die 6, zhi mei tong 42. 36 mei yuan, zhe shi zi 2017 nian 8 yue 17 ri yi lai de xin di. hong guan jing ji xing shi ji qi dui shi you xu qiu de ying xiang ji xu gei you jia dai lai ya li, mei guo zheng fu de guan bi jia ju le dui zi chan shi chang de ya li. dan jia qi guo hou, tou zi zhe si hu ping jing xia lai, mei guo gu shi fan dan, e luo si biao shi yuan yi zai bi yao shi hui mian, yi bang zhu wen ding shi you shi chang bing shi xian yuan you jia ge de V xing fan zhuan. shang zhou wu 12 yue 28 ri, API yuan you ku cun da fu shang zhang, dan duo tou bao liu le bu fen sheng li guo shi. gen ju Beckhughes neng yuan fu wu gong si zhou liu 12 yue 29 ri de yi fen bao gao, 12 yue 28 ri zhe yi zhou, zuan jing ping tai shu liang zeng jia le 2 ge, da dao 885 ge, zhe biao ming mei guo yuan you chan liang you wang jin yi bu zeng jia. ci wai, API yuan you ku cun xia jiang fu du di yu yu qi, zhe ke neng shi xia zhou chu de you jia lue di. ou pei ke ji qi meng guo, bao kuo e luo si, ben yue zao xie shi hou tong yi mei tian jian chan 120 wan tong. xie yi jiang yu ming nian 1 yue kai shi. ou pei ke mi shu zhang ba er jin ci qian ceng biao shi, wei le zheng ming qi jian shao gong ying de cheng nuo, ou pei ke jiang fa bu yi fen biao ge, xiang xi shuo ming qi cheng yuan guo e luo si he qi ta meng guo de jian chan pei e. wei shi xian ri chan 120 wan tong de ni yi jian chan, cheng yuan guo de you xiao jian chan lv wei 3. 02. jin nian lai, cong gong ji ce jie gou kan, shi you shi chang de zhu dao di wei yi you shi you shu chu guo zu zhi ou pei ke zhuan xiang mei guo sha te a la bo he e luo si san fang bo yi. 2019 nian, mei guo yuan you chan liang ji ben shi xian neng yuan du li, sui zhe nei lu guan dao ping jing de huan jie, jiang wen bu zeng zhang, shi bi jia da gong ying guo sheng ya li. ye yan chan liang de zeng zhang shi mei guo cheng wei shi jie shang zui da de shi you sheng chan guo. shang zhou de shu ju xian shi, mei guo de shi you chan liang reng bao chi zai mei tian 1160 wan tong, lue di yu mei tian 1170 wan tong de li shi gao dian. ling yi fang mian, sha te a la bo he e luo si zhu dao de xie yi zhi zai ping heng shi chang, dan kao lv dao e luo si he bu fen mian shui chan you guo de shi li bu zu, wu fa shi shi jian chan, shi ji ti gao you jia de fu du you xian. shu ju xian shi, zai zhi xing xin de ou pei ke qie duan xie yi zhi qian, zhu yao chan you guo yi kai shi man fu he sheng chan, e luo si yuan you chan liang zai 12 yue qian liang zhou sheng zhi mei ri 1142 wan tong, da dao xin de gao dian. yi ge er, e luo si zui da de yuan you sheng chan shang e luo si shi you gong si de shou xi zhi xing guan? sai qin shuo, you jia ying gai yi jing wen ding xia lai, yin wei mei ge ren dou ying gai he li di hai pa ou pei ke xie yi, dan shi shi shang mei you ren hai pa. ke li mu lin gong fa yan ren pei si ke fu Dmitry Peskov zai ben zhou fa biao de yi fen sheng ming zhong shuo, xian zai ping gu ou pei ke xie yi de you xiao xing hai wei shi guo zao, gai xie yi jiang sui zhe shi jian de tui yi dui jia ge chan sheng ying xiang. quan qiu gu shi da fu xia die, xu qiu xin xin de beng kui shi zui da de duan qi yin su. JohnKilduff, LLC de he huo ren, ren wei sui zhe gu piao shi chang de xia die, ge zhong jin rong shi chang dou cun zai jin zhang ju shi, dao zhi you jia cheng ya. xu qiu qian jing ji xu shou dao zhi yi. ta shuo, mei guo li lv de shang sheng po shi tou ji zhe pao shou tou cun, tui di you jia. neng yuan tou zi yin hang Tudor Pickering Holt Co. de fen xi shi biao shi, guo qu ji tian yuan you shi chang mian lin de xiao shou ya li bu shi you ji ben mian yin su zao cheng de, er shi you zheng ti shi chang de beng kui zao cheng de, zhe shi you yu gu shi bo dong jia ju he dui quan qiu hong guan jing ji qian jing de dan you suo zhi. hui tong zhu yi dao, yu 2014 nian de qu shi pian cha bu tong, jin ji zhou lai, you jia he mei guo gu shi de bo dong xing yue lai yue qu tong, xiang guan xing gao da 75, zhe ye biao ming you jia yue lai yue shou dao jing ji dan you de ying xiang. zhe ye jie shi le wei shen me ou pei ke jue ding zai bu jiu de jiang lai xue jian chan liang, xu duo cheng yuan guo shi yan zun shou xue jian xie yi, dan you jia si hu zhi gen sui mei guo gu shi de da fu xia die. mei guo yuan you zhou si shang zhang chao guo 9, mei guo gu shi dang tian qiang jing fan dan, san da zhu yao gu zhi chuang xia jin shi nian lai zui da dan ri zhang fu, zai ci de dao zheng shi." zhi jia ge jia ge qi huo ji tuan Chicago Price Futures Group jing ji gong si gao ji neng yuan fen xi shi fu lin Flynn biao shi:" you jia ji ben shang yu shi ji gong xu ji ben mian tuo jie, dan yu gu shi zhang die you guan." Drillinginfo fu ze shi chang qing bao de fu zong cai Bernadette Johnson biao shi, shi chang reng ran fei chang dan xin xu qiu. zui hou yi lun pao shou bing mei you fan ying chu shi chang dui xu qiu de xin xin, dan shi chang reng ran xia die de tai kuai, li run lv tai gao, wo men reng ran ren wei 45 mei yuan tai di. a lian qiu neng yuan bu zhang ma zu rui Mazrui biao shi, wei lai shi you fan dan de san ge ji ben mian shi 3 yue 23 ri yan chang jian chan huo guo du jian chan huo you jia hui sheng, ru guo jian chan bu qi zuo yong, ou pei ke jiang yan chang jian chan xie yi de qi xian 6 ge yue. ju liao jie, ci qian de ou pei ke ji hua yu 2019 nian 1 yue kai shi shi shi jian chan, chu bu she ding de qi xian wei 4 ge yue. ju wai mei bao dao, e luo si neng yuan bu zhang nuo wa ke biao shi, ming nian shang ban nian shi chang jiang geng jia wen ding, bing jian yi ou pei ke ji qi meng guo he zuo zhi chi shi you shi chang. sha te a la bo ji hua zai 2019 nian 1 yue mei tian sheng chan 1020 wan tong yuan you, di yu gen ju ou pei ke xie yi fen pei ji ta de 1030 wan tong yuan you. shi you shu chu guo zu zhi opec sha te zhu guan a ma ama biao shi:" dui sha te a la bo lai shuo, guo du jian chan bing bu mo sheng." ta hai shuo, sha te a la bo zai zhi qian de jian chan zhong yi jing chao guo le qi mu biao, er qie jian chan chao guo le qi fen e. 2017 nian 1 yue zhi 2018 nian 5 yue, jiang fu da dao 120. ci wai, tou zi zhe xu yao guan zhu de shi, yi lang de shi you chu kou shi fou hui zai ming nian xia ban nian jin yi bu xia jiang, jie shi yi lang ji ge zhu yao ke hu mian zao shi you zhi cai de zui hou qi xian jiang dao qi. ba ke lai tou zi yin hang Barclays Investment Bank yu ce, ru guo you jia ji xu di yu 60 mei yuan, te lang pu zheng fu jiang you geng duo de yu di mian chu shi you xu qiu guo shou dao zhi cai, zhe yi wei zhe wei lai shi you gong ying reng cun zai zheng zhi feng xian. zai you jia tu po 80 mei yuan de men kan zhi qian, mei guo bu hui ji xu xiang yi lang shi ya, yi xue ruo qi chu kou neng li. shi shi shang, sui zhe mei guo dui yi lang zhi cai li du de jia da, yi lang de yuan you chan liang da fu xia jiang, 11 yue de yuan you ri chan liang shou ci jiang zhi 300 wan tong yi xia. sui zhe yi lang de gu li jia ju, huo zhe yi lang yuan you chu kou liang jiang zhi shi chang ci qian gu ji de mei tian 100 wan tong, zhe ke neng shi dui you jia de you xiao zhi cheng. jia ge xia die zi ran hui xue ruo zeng chan de yi yuan. you jia xia die jiang dao zhi mei guo ye yan you sheng chan shang xue jian ming nian de zuan jing ji hua. you yu mei guo shi you die po 50 mei yuan de men kan, sheng chan shang ke neng hen nan chang qi wei chi guo ji shou zhi ping heng, mei guo shi you chan liang ke neng cheng xian xia jiang qu shi. gen ju hui tong de fen xi, ru guo you jia guo di, ou pei ke yi xie cheng yuan guo de dong dang ke neng hui jia ju. 2014 nian zhi 2016 nian qi jian, jia ge bao die, dao zhi huo zhi shao jia ju le li bi ya wei nei rui la he ni ri li ya de dian li gong ying zhong duan. tong yang de shi qing ke neng hui zai ci fa sheng. ji hu suo you ou pei ke cheng yuan guo du xu yao geng gao de you jia lai shi xian guo ji shou zhi ping heng. ru guo 2019 nian yuan you gong ying yi wai zhong duan ke neng hui shou jin shi chang, wei lai you jia reng you hui luo de ji hui. ze ren bian ji: zhang ning

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